we do have a rally on election day today, dow jones industrial average up 147 points. gold is higher, as is crude. and "power" starts now. final countdown is on. six hours, less than that, until the first batch of states close the polls on this historic election day. welcome, everybody. how important is ohio? well, this is the airport in cleveland and these are the airplanes of governor mitt romney first and vice president joe biden just a few hours ago. we will show you why that state's economy may well determine the outcome of today's election. and this is the dow chart since the president took office, up more than 60% at 13, 260. accident of histly? who knows? start at the new york stock exchange where my partner sue

herera is on the post. sue? >> indeed, it is a big day down here on the floor with a triple-digit advance. you know, five of the last six election days, the dow moved less than 1%. obviously, it maybe quite different today. right now the dow jones average is up better than 1% already, up 147 points, almost 148. the s & p up almost 13. the nasdaq up almost 18. bob pisani joins me here on the floor of the new york stock exchange, a decent pop, fairly broad based. an election day lot of commentary floating around, a lot of people pushing positions, much of the commentary is erroneous but that's what moves markets these days. here's what's important, the biggest single the move is weakness we are seeing in the dollar because that's pushing up a very important sector of the market, all the commodities and commodity-based stocks to the upside, oil up big, gold up big. >> topping the 1700 dollar an ounce mark. >> over that. moving towards the -- moving averaging gold, put up some of the big material names, you will

see what i mean. see steel stocks huge, ak steel, alcoa free port, b hchhp billit. energy stocks a tough time in the past couple of weeks, oil being weak. look today, refiners like tesoro and val lair row, down the last couple of weeks. >> but an 80 -- my favorite indicator, tran nist, up 80 points today. see you later. kenny poll carry on the other side of me here, i feel like it's been ages. >> it has been ages. >> tell me what you think broad based about what's going on right here.

>> i think the market is set to kind of rally no matter who wins but i think we are going to hit our head here at 1425, 1430 because we have that looming fiscal cliff and until we really get over there, i don't think the market will go anywhere. >> do you buy into the move today then with the fiscal cliff looming further out? >> i would actually be a certain into today as the market push a little higher, i would be a searle, back down at the 14, 1410 level, where i think it is going to test. we will see you later as well. we have so many people on the show today. see you later, kenny. ty, back to you. >> sue, thank you. at this point it is all about the math adding up, which side can get more of their supporters to the polls in the key states that matter? there are about ten of them. the race is to 270 electoral votes, that is. check in with our resident math teacher, john har wood is at the map. >> you don't need calculus for this, just look at the map we've got. when you take the states that are leaning or firmly in the

camp of each candidate, you can see they are all filled in red or blue expecept for a few, 237 electoral votes for obama, 191 for mitt romney, you need 270 to become president. now, what is the shortest path for mitt romney to overcome the swing state legion and get to 270 electoral votes? give mitt romney florida, virginia, north carolina, colorado. his shortest path is to win those states. he would win a majority of the nine swing states and that gets him to 275, 263 for barack obama. he also needs for that scenario to win the state of ohio. tyler mentioned the cleveland airport today. what -- now, let's go back to this map again, put the swing states again in yellow and say, what is barack obama's shortest path? he just needs to win three of the nine swing states, those three, wisconsin, paul ryan's home state, ohio, the state we have just been talking about and

also nevada, big harry reid's home state, the senate leader, big union vote, big hispanic vote there. if he gets those three things, barack obama gets to 271 electoral votes and wins, tyler. >> but not any three of those nine states? >> specifically those three. >> specifically those three. say it again, ohio, nevada -- >> ohio, wisconsin, nevada. if barack obama gets those three, can win every other swing state -- >> do the polls tell us that he is ahead in those three? >> yes. >> they do? >> he is ahead in all three. in fact of the nine swing states, tyler, mitt romney has a clear lead only in the state of north carolina. he is even with president obama in florida and many strategists in both parties believe florida will go to mitt romney but he has got to get a lot more than that. >> john harwood, thank you very much. as john outlined it is very difficult for either candidate, frankly, to get to that magic 270 number without the state of ohio and here's video evidence from cleveland as to how important it is. both the romney and the biden

campaign planes making stops at the cleveland hopkins airport and holding last-minute appearances in the state. our senior correspondent scott cohn is in the buckeye state, a state with the state of the economy actually cuts both ways. scott? >> yeah, it does, tyler. first, a look at how this day is going. we are at the student union at ohio state university. you can probably see the sun coming in behind me. it's a beautiful day in ohio. 1.8 million absentee votes -- ballots sent out. that's record chltz and everything tending toward turnout that could be huge today. it has been busy here, started lining up at 6 a.m., the polls opened at 6:30. the line, last we checked, stepping out the door here at the union, presumably more democratic crowd but turnout is big everywhere, including at the columbus area precinct where ohio senator rob portman cast his ballot today. he says that independents are turning out. they favor governor romney. in many respects, the voters are

rendering judgment on a strong ohio economy. take a look at the numbers. the unemployment rate here, 7%, that's below the national average. the state ranks third in the nation for job growth over the past year. and in our america's top states for business rankings this year, third for low cost of doing business. but who gets credit for that, the democrats and support of president obama say it's the auto bailout you can the stimulus. supporters of governor romney say it's republican governor john kasich and the strides this state has made are in spite of president obama. economist jason sell legman here at ohio state says it really has to do a lot with ohio's diverse economy. >> we, of course, both make things but we make things for each other, so there are export and import dynamics. >> what is -- will have to be different by the obama administration is forging a new

alliance with the business community all over the country. and the new alliance is going to carry the day on the other side of the aisle, the republican. >> that's columbus mayor mayor michael coleman who is predicting an obama victory but says there needs to be changes if the president is re-elected in terms of how he relates to business, particularly as we head for the fiscal cliff. we will see how ohio goes, this is going to go on for a while but turnout, as i said, heavy. we will see. back to you. >> all right, scott, thank you very much. now to florida, where 29 electoral votes at stake, both camps have campaigned very hard there in the final stretch and florida is no stranger, as you probably know, to election controversy. can you say hanging chad? our mary thompson is watching the voting for us in orlando and she joins us now live. hi, mare. >> hey there sue. you know, both republicans and democrats have their legal teams

at the ready given the tightness of the race here in the snipe state. recent polls are giving the edge to governor romney, with 29 electoral votes, of course, florida is the biggest prize among the swing states here. florida's importance critical, the time and the money they spent here in florida. only ohio has been visited more with each campaign spending more advertising dollars in florida than in any other state. as for the main concern, no matter who they support, florida's struggling economy. >> i considered romney for a short while until i realized he doesn't have a plan that's detailed. if you expect somebody to be successful there has to be a plan. when i luke at what happened in the country the last four years, i see all positive indicators across the board. >> economic policies, they are, i think, vastly superior, the vision that obama has led up for the country, more fiscally responsible plan that will get the country back on track.

>> florida's unemployment rate stands at 8.7%, above the national average. it's been hard hit by a couple of things, most notably the housing bubble and also more recently, its tourist industry has been impacted by the weakness we are seeing in europe. floridians, you might recall, aren't used to lagging any national averages when it comes to economic growth so getting that on a faster pace continues to be their main concern. so what are the keys to winning florida? well, susan mcmanus, a political analyst and a professor at the university of south florida says voter turnout, the 50-plus vote tends to favor romney, the younger vote, obama. in 2008 you can the 18 to 29-year-olds help to lift obama to a victory here. the concern among democrats, of course, is the enthusiasm isn't here this time around. of course, the polls are open until 7 p.m. eastern, 7 central the we were part of the state. we will be here throughout the night. guys, back to you. >> thank you very much, mary. with the economy stable nationally but struggling, the next president, of course, will

be under immense pressure to get millions of people back to work, to deal with the fiscal cliff and a mir yacht of other pressing financial problems. more now on that and the political landscape from politico's chief economic correspondent, ben white. ben, welcome, good to have you with us. let's talk politics first though here, because i want to get your and politico's point of view on that. what are the changes, do you think that one person will have more of the popular vote and another more of the electoral volt and secondly this may drag on and get litigated because of voting irregulators or provis n provisional ballots in some states? >> i think you're not going to hear a lot about hanging chads this year, might hear about provisional ballots in ohio. to answer the first question on the popular vote versus the electoral vote. i think there are decent chances you see romney win in the popular vote and romney in the electoral college h polls in the popular vote are deed heated. >> 47-47? >> precisely. wouldn't surprise me to see romney have a win in the

popular, lose the electoral college. the provisional ballots in ohio, later in the night and within 100,000 votes in ohio, that's when the provisional ballots cast at the poll does come into play. if you start hearing lot about john u stead, the secretary of state in ohio and what he will do with provisional ballots you know we are in for a long night. he will decide which has the proper information and get counted. mir a lead in 100,000 or less in ohio the end of the night, you will have a big fight over provisional ballots getting counted and those could put obama back over the to the first thing to look for is virginia, if obama wins virginia, probably shorter night. >> talk about why the candidates are specifically in cleveland today, ryan, romney and biden going there? >> well that is cuyahoga county in ohio. the point there is republicans, for mitt romney, he wants to lower president obama's margin in the urban areas of ohio, particularly in cleveland. if he can bring down that margin somewhat, he is going to do well in other parts of the state, rural parts of the state and he can win ohio, so, trying to pull some of that support in cleveland away from president obama. that's why you see joe biden

going there today. hospital decided to do that until they saw romney going there need to get our people to the polls, need them to be fired up, care about cleveland,ed bison there not a news cycle it is all romney in cleveland, they want a big margin in the urban areas to offset for the rural areas f they knew that they win ohio. >> come back here and talk about the fiscal cliff you can the economy and more with ben white and key senate and house races in our next half hour. meantime, we want to hear from you on this election day, go to finance.yahoo!.com and tell us the best thing about a result. is it more certainty for the markets or leaders refocus on solving the fiscal cliff or no more campaign ads? we will have have the results later, sue. >> i bet that third category will get a lot of votes, ty. all right, we are going to talk about the damage from superstorm sandy it is making it very difficult for thousands of people to vote. and to make matters off, yet another northeaster is headed our way tomorrow. a live update coming up for you here on "power lunch."

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welcome back to power lunch, i'm bertha coombs. batching shares of ringo, a small company, but a very big patent case going on now in virginia. the jury has been now deliberating for four days, a fourth day today. they are suing google, aol and

others over search patents that they say those companies have infringed on, search patents they had bought back from lycos years ago. today, the stock broke, two individual stock circuit break, this morning, a number of players anticipate we may see a verdict. we will give you more if we get more news. these one of the stocks that is halt ted moment and we are watching. tyler, back to you. >> fantastic, bertha, thank you. >> talk about your one/two punches much of the northeast, still suffering with the devastation of hurricane sandy. now, a northeaster is headed toward the very same battered coastline. let's get the latest on the storm's track from meteorologist todd gross. hi, todd. >> i know it's hard to believe but it is happening it is coming to fruition, another storm, a significant nor'easter, which is going to take place tomorrow into tomorrow night, moving up the shoreline and, yes, there is now a new wildcard, which i will explain in just a moment, which really complicates the whole mix. first of all, the storm center itself will be wednesday

afternoon right off the new jersey shoreline heading for nantucket island. you can see the rain and the snow basically affecting new england all the way down through new jersey at that time. let's look at some of the impacts you will see from the storm and you will notice that the first one is that all too familiar wind, up to 60-mile-an-hour gusts, anywhere from atlantic city northeastward to boston, but mostly on eastern long island, cape cod and the islands. that would be nantucket and martha's vineyard. so it is mostly a coastal influence when it comes to the wind and certainly not as bad as sandy, but there's also coastal flooding a possibility, minor tide tomorrow afternoon and the big wildcard i'm referring to a brief mix with heavy, wet snow which may bring renewed power outages even to the new york metro area tomorrow late afternoon and tomorrow night. so we will be taking a look at that as the day progresses. now, a chance of snow involved as well. >> todd gross, thank you very much. and with much of new jersey

still suffering in the aftermath of hurricane sandy, where and how to vote could be an issue for lots of people. my polling place was moved. kayla tausche is tracking that in the garden state. >> reporter: getting people to the polls is a major task here in the storm-ravaged state with hundreds in shelters hundreds of thousands still without power. an original plan to have national guard trucks serving as mobile polling stations was quashed by state officials that's because many power grids are coming back up. the move to allow displaced voters to vote by e-mail not without controversy, many residents still don't have power and therefore, can't vote by e-mail. others have rebel xbrirsd still received their ballots and experts warn against e-mail voter fraud n new jersey, voter turnout has historically outpaced the national average. for the last three elections, 20% damage points above that national average of 51%. voters here in new jersey made sure their voice were heard and heard early.

in morris county, 2,000 voters turned out just saturday and sunday n nearby essex county, lines were up to two hours long. now, here in bergen county, many couldn't vote early because of road closures and the mayor here has made sure that public transportation could get people it turn out here for voting. it definitely seems like a steady turnout, although everybody expects it to be down this election. guys, back to you. >> thank you very much, kayla. well, while the election winner might take some uncertainty off of the table it is not a complete green light for stocks or for jobs. cnbc's senior economics reporter steve liesman is going to dig down on how jobs in the crucial swing states may impact today's vote. plus, matt chess love right over there, waiting in the wings, going to join me with a look what the the markets may do tomorrow based on what's happening tonight, with the dow jones industrial average up 150 points you can the s & p up almost a full percent. the nasdaq up a half a percent. back in a minute.

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[ male announcer ] don't just reject convention. drown it out. introducing the all-new 2013 lexus ls f sport. an entirely new pursuit. welcome back to "power lunch." want to update you on ringo, the verdict is in the jury awarding $30 million in past damages in its patent suit against google and others, patents were found valid by the jury but you can call this kind of the glass maybe a little half empty. virginia ringo will receive royalties until they expire in 2016 but sought nearly $700

million in damages. whoever wins the election, they will have to revive a lagging market. >> remember this was supposed to be an election about jobs, jobs and jobs? is it really? take a look at the results. this is the "wall street journal"/nbc poll showing 48-47%. we checked on a question on that poll, are you unemployed? have you been unemployed in the last four years, someone in your household been unemployed? 26% of the public says yes to that question. how would they vote? take a look. i brought it out to the tenth decimal there so you see how close it really is. they are exactly as divided as the broader public here. now let's divide it up a little bit. unemployed, if you had somebody unemployed in your household, for romney, with the margin of error of the poll, same thing here, if you, yourself, were unemployed, you break slightly more for obama, 50-45%.

that is the national level. how about the state by state basis? can we find a pattern here, where unemployment matters when it comes to the state? it is very hard. first thing i want you to notice is these darker states, darker is more unemployment, higher unemployment relative to the rest of the country, new york, new jersey, come here to this side here, california, going up even as other parts of the west goes somewhat higher than the rest of the nation, those are considered solidly blue. look here the middle of the country from oklahoma all the way to north dakota. virginia, low unemployment rate, 3 to 5%, that puts it in play the next thing is the change in unemployment, again, not much change here, what are considered mostly democratic states. only here when you look at north carolina and florida, those states are considered to be in play and ohio as well, of

course, when you have a positive change and potentially those are swing states. tyler? >> bottom line here, we are a little short on time, the unemployed are no more fundamentally likely to favor one candidate than another? >> that's exactly right. >> very close. >> thought would be a huge swing one way or the other. >> people blame obama or say well, romney might be a little tougher on -- >> whichever way this goes, tyler, i think there's going to be a lot of monday morning quarterbacking about this particular section of the electora electorate, where 26% are unemployed and -- >> have been unemployed the past four years. >> experience one employment. >> sue to you? >> the polls close in a few hours, barring a contested election, we should know who the winner is by tomorrow. how will the market respond to an obama win or a romney win? matt chess lock a trade and he joins us. let's start with a romney win what does the market do if romney whips? >> romney obviously is good for

business, we know that, good probably for stocks. i think we are going to see a rally either way. see if we get a conclusion, that's the if. >> right. >> this is an important election obviously for just about everyone. >> a myriad of reasons, too. >> for anything. the more you develop into it the more confusing it does get. i think we will see a rally you at least for a week or so, probably based on any finality we get today. >> if it's a contested election, you think that's the bigger issue for this market overall? >> based on historics, the last time we had this a few years ago, a 10% correction in the s & p and dow no one wants that, no one looking for that as well in this situation. >> unless those aggressively short the market? >> and they are probably getting burned a little bit today. everyone keeps talking about sell nothing any rally, selling into any rally, seeing 160-point rally on no news. this market, election, way too close to call for any investor to put a risk-on trade now i certainly wouldn't do it i don't know many people that are. volume is showing that, you know, no one really knows what's

going on, why would you place a bet today? why not wait until tomorrow, still get the same action you are going to get on volatility. >> very good advice. thank you very much, matt. back up to you. >> thank you. not just about the race to the white house, voters today also deciding birthly fought house and senate battles. coming up, a look at key contests in a handful of states that could have really sweeping implications for wall street and your portfolio.

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welcome back to "power lunch," i'm sharon epperson at the nymex, gold prices are closing here, surging more than $30 in this session, reclaiming that 1700 level. in fact, we are closing right around 1715 an ounce and gold is just an indication of what is happening across the board in the commodities complex, a very strong rally going on here. silver, the best performing commodity today, up more than 3%, but commodities from oil to orange juice are all benefiting today and traders say a lot of it has to do with thor are perception that an obama

re-election would mean that bernanke stays as the fed chairman and see a further continuation of accommodative policy. if this, in fact, does play out and we do see interest rates low, gold will be a big beneficiary, that's what traders are talking about. they are also looking at, of course, other commodities as well and this surge in brent and wti prices is one to watch very closely. back to you. >> thank you so much, sharon. here on the nyse floor, we have a 160-point rally in the dow jones industrial average, bob pisani. >> so what do we see here? there is obviously a lot of people pushing around their position and their various political philosophies. what we see here though is perhaps none of that. what we see is a classic risk-on rally. what happens in a risk-on rally? traditionally, the dollar will drop, that's exactly what we are happening and women see commodities move up aggressively, materials move up there's the dollar index to the downside. commodity stocks will move up. look at these moves in commodity stocks here today, including the gold group, there's y'all man nah, representative on the bottom of the group.

energy stocks and coal stocks move in a risk-on trade you that, is what is happening, including peabody and energy. and the other example of risk-on is the transports tend to move to the upside and a very good day forth transport. i do not see evidence that the market is clearly saying romney's gonna win or obama's gonna win. >> there are those on the floor who are pointing out in '08, date of the election, with add 3% move in the market and that frequently, on election days, regardless of who wins, you get a rally in the market. >> right. >> it is not necessarily a commentary about either candidate. >> but what this may be is some hope that there will be a victor of some kind. one or the other. and everybody agrees that the worst case scenario for the stock market is nobody wins tomorrow, that it drags on for months as it did in 2000 before we get a clear victor. to the extent the market feels that way here, i think that's one thing you might be able to

say. >> 164 points to the plus side. thank you very much, bob. to the nasdaq now and seema mody following the big movers there. >> good afternoon. technology definitely a bright spot in today's trading. take a look at the nasdaq. up .6 of a percent. got to point your attention to apple. now at session lows. remember the stock coming off a tough week, closing below its 200-day moving average. on friday, the first time since november of 2011, a quick look at chip stocks. nvidia lower by .2 after ubs cutting its q 3 estimates, citing weakness in the pc market. of course, that continues to be a major theme and trend in the technology space. also got to point your attention to zillow.com. q 4 revenue forecast came in slightly light after missing -- after losing a big advertiser. the stock down better than 18%. and lastly, take a look at express scripts,s here the story. on the conference call, management estimated that wall street estimates for 2013 may be

overly aggressive and seeing the stock better than 11%. back to you. >> thank you very much, seema. it is not, of course, about only the presidential race today. every house seat is up for grabs and more than 30 senate races as well and many in the markets say that what happens here may impact the economy even more potentially that the presidential race. ammanoffers has some of the key races you've been watching. >> hi, tyler. the key thing is the balance of power right now is 51 democrats, two independents who vote with the democrats and 47 republicans. four to take the majority you only three if mitt romney the majority, because paul ryan would cast the tie vote in that scenario. a couple key races to watch, one republican race in nebraska, ben nelson retiring, a centrist democrat, an opportunity for a republican pickup. bobber can very running there the former nebraska senator, trying to get back into the

senate. debra, fischer on the republican side, polling shows fischer ahead of kerrey here, we would expect it is a very republican state, the republicans have a good chance there for a pickup. on the democratic side august chance the democrats have chance to snatch one away from the republicans is massachusetts, where senator scott brown is running a tough fight against elizabeth warren, the democratic candidate. we know that she was so crucial in the creation of the consumer watchdog board down in washington. we see warn ahead of the polling, neck in neck. >> traditionally democratic state? >> ted kennedy's old seat. a point of pride. >> the two states in which republican also early leads in the senate races, missouri and indiana, the republican candidates there sort of stepped in it a couple times. >> social issues have been disastrous for republicans this year, comments about rape and under what circumstances we should allow abortion have been very, very inflammatory in a couple of these races. these not helping republicans who want to take control of the senate this year. >> all right, thanks very much, eamon javers. move over and talk on the

house, the senate and the shifting balance of power, pardon my back there folks, ben white, chief economic correspondent with plight skoal still with us. as eamon was pointing out, the balance in both houses could be critical in determining what, if anything, gets done and how quickly it gets done on the fiscal cliff. >> republicans, might gain a couple and lose a couple, still be republican chromed. what markets are concerned about if obama wins, he still has a very intransigent republican majority in the house f he wants some deal done on taxes, particularly the fiscal cliff, he i'm not going to let tax cuts, people 250,000 and above be extended. john boehner out saying too bad, we want all the tax cuts extended. obama wins, still a republican house, can't come together, can't make a deal.

>> the house will stay clearly republican. >> might gain a couple, lose a couple. whatever the case, they have a 25-seat majority, not going to lose it and it is clear, boehner has said very clearly, we don't

see a mandate happening in this election for obama even if he wins. we are going to maintain our majority. our mandate is intact. still fight against any tax increase he is. don't see a grand bargaining happening that includes new revenue on the table. >> glad you are with us today. really enjoy it. sue, back to you. performed better under democratic presidents than republican presidents. >> i will tell you why news corp's earnings after the bell today are ex-spented to soar and what to expect from some of the other media giants report this week.

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with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. we are going to look at last-minute stock place for your portfolio new obama millionaires house, do they stack up against gop presidents? and a once we know who will be the president the next four years will we finally solve the fiscal cliff?

if not, you won't believe what it will cost you. get back to power lunch. the voters are heading to the poll, with the election behind us tomorrow, will we see a pop either way because of some of the uncertainty removed from the market or not? your massive this morning, you had interesting statistics and you said this market looks like '08 all over again what way? >> traditionally, election day is somewhat bullish, ordinarily, maybe half of a percent, 60 points, maybe 80 points, this is a bit of a overtrade. now, in '08, the market went up 3.5% on election day roughly 400 points. strangely, in the ex-day is usually a quiet day flat, maybe down a little. you think, gee, you know who the president is going to be, in '08, up that 400 and down over

600 the next day. so, an unusual whipsaw. i guess you have to remember that was less than two months after lehman and aig. >> exactly. definitely a different time certainly. do you think that a decision on who was president removes the biggest uncertainty for the market? there's also europe out there there's the fiscal cliff out there. which is the most important issue four the market tomorrow? >> i have been staying in writing for a week now, dear god, don't let it be close. >> yes. >> i'm afraid the nation as polarized as it is, it will be a problem. they already have the lawyers out there. the worst thing for the market if this is very close and questioned, instead of having one florida, we will wind up with six of them and rushing to the fiscal cliff without any certainty and anybody in place. >> seems the dom mix issues

trumped europe for now. is that a correct read, do you think? >> yes, it is, but, again, we have been repeating them and repeating them dur the campaign and once the campaign is resolved, we may go back and look. a strike going on in greece today, a vote an their austerity program, wouldn't take much to put europe in center stage. people got that sigh of relief after the i will do whatever it takes, that's behind us, not sure it session abilitily behind us. right. today's move in the market, do you believe it? there is some confirmation from the transports but at the same time, the volume isn't quite what i think some people would like to see. what's your read on it? >> actually, volume's a little bit lower than yesterday by about, i would say 30 to 50 million. it clearly looks like a reflation play. if you look at gold and you look at oil and you look at several

of the commodities, you could say the dollar is weak but not as weak as indicated. >> percentage based? >> yeah. i think it is suspect. on election day i have been going through these for 50 years there are always whacky rumors, there was a broken machine and when they went to fix it so-and-so was ahead eight times. you know, they are never, ever true but markets move on them. >> sure do thanks, old friend. good to see you, arthur, as always. art carbon. big week for media earnings, discovery and liberty media already out. rupert murdock's news corp reports after the bell, disney and time warner also getting ready. and julia boorstin is ready in los angeles with everything you need to know. hi, julia. >> reporter: hi, tyler. the media giants have been on fire over the past year. news corps' stock up 40% the past four months, time warner up 25%, disney up 45% as they report earnings the next two days. we will have to see how much longer they can keep growing ad revenue and raking in higher tv fees.

fox broadcast networks rating declines. wall street experts news corp to report 17% higher earnings per share of 38 cents on 2% higher revenue of 8.2 billion. we can expect some questions about news corps' plan to spin off publishing and education divisions and guidance on advertising, which is considered a key economic indicator. time warner, higher affiliate fees are expected to offset the decline. analysts expecting a higher third quarter earnings on slightly lower revenue. thursday after noon, we will hear from disney t is projected to grow earnings per share 15%. investors are sure to be digging through the parks and ads results in particular for some insight into consumer spending and the economy. and of course, on the heels of last week's acquisition of lucas

film, we can expect lots of questions about what disney is planning for that division and,will affect their bottom line. check out the u.s. unemployment picture since president obama took office. the official unemployed ticking hire, as you see, by about 2 million versus four years ago. the state with the highest unemployment is nevada. jane wells is live from the swing state city of las vegas. jane? >> reporter: tyler, what happens in vegas goes to washington. up next, we are going to look at the big money and small in an election that's all about jobs in a state hit harder than just about anywhere else. live from the las vegas strip, after the break. this is steve. he loves risk. but whether he's climbing everest, scuba diving the great barrier reef with sharks, or jumping into the market, he goes with people he trusts, which is why he trades with a company that doesn't nickel and dime him with hidden fees. so he can worry about other things,

like what the market is doing and being ready, no matter what happens, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense, from td ameritrade.

welcome back to power lunch. today, one of the best performing sec stores the defense sector, the defense sector index reaching a 52-week high. some of the best performers include lockheed martin and united technology, lockheed and northrup part of the cnbc romney portfolio, today, the big charge there coming from coal. >> indeed it is. thank you very much. you probably already know it takes some big money to run for president, so candidates need donors with deep pockets, some

of the biggest pac donors in the country come from nevada. our jane wells is in las vegas with the details. hi, jane. >> reporter: hi, sue, nevada is not better off than it was four years ago but better than two years ago, still has the highest unemployment rate 11.8% and battle for six electoral votes is considered a tossup. nobody is betting more on this election than las vegas co sheldon adelson and his wife. they spent over $20 million to help get mitt romney leengtd, considered the top donors super pacs in the country. open secret says the top five individual donors here to each campaign, romney has raised nearly $21 million in nevada, nearly all of it to his super pac. barack obama's top five individual donors have contributed $49,000, none of it to his super pac, but nevada is mostly democrat, one-fourth of its population hispanic, which tends to lean blue. nobody knows how this is going to end up, which is why they keep dropping in.

>> hello, nevada! >> i think the choice that you make here in nevada and perhaps right here in reno, will make a difference for the nation. >> are you going to help us whip this thing, nevada? >> reporter: but at the microscopic level in nevada, the economy is improving, case in point, chef natalie young opened a restaurant in a run down area north of the strip. she has hired 20 people and is karen flow positive in her first month. >> i think there's jobs for people that want to work if they are following do anything. you might have is to change your profession, you might have to get your hands dirty, but there's work. if you leave your success or failure up to somebody else, we're in trouble. so, for me exit's like roll up my sleeves, take a chance. >> reporter: she did not get any of her startup money from the government or a bank, guys. she got all of it from zap poe ceo tony shea. 20 minutes you will hear from him and his $350 million bet,

private bet, sue, on revitalizing sin city. back to you. >> fantastic. great story, jane. look forward to hearing more of it a little bit later today. meantime, to the bond market, treasuries pulling back a little bit today. what does that tell us about the presidential race, if anything at all? jim muir yo director at tjm institutional service and cnbc contributor. so jim, what's the bond market telling you about how this election may turn out? >> i think you got to look at it for the last two weeks and not just today. i think the bond market, people started buying it in anticipation of obama win. i don't think the weakness today means they are staying is more likely that is a romney whip. i think what's more likely, they bought all the bonds they wanted, now they are in wait and see mode and some nerves creep in and then you start to say to yourself what if, you cover a little bit of your position, that's what's weighing a little bit on treasuries today. >> what about -- we also have supply this week, too, we have a lot of auctions this week. >> there's no document and

supply is part of t but we got keep our eye on the biggest thing. the biggest thing is whether or not it is obama or romney h the market believes an obama victory is positive to bonds, from an economic standpoint, the mark it's opinion, not mine necessarily, well it is actually, but they are saying that it will be a hire regulatory environment and tax environment for corporations and a little bit of a slower recovery, therefore, you need the safety of bonds a little bit more a romney win would be the opposite. i think that's bigger factor than supply, although supply always has that kind of a constant weighing effect. >> right. right. all right, jim, thank you so much. appreciate it. >> thank you, sue. >> see you soon. in the next hour, obama stocks versus romney stocks. we are going to check our exclusive cnbc port foal grows see hot market's banking on and whether you should, too. we will be right back. try running four.ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately we've got ink.

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[ female announcer ] today is not just about who lives in the white house, it's about who lives in the yellow house, the brick, the green, and the apartment house, too. today we not only honor the oval office, but we honor the cubicle, the open-air office and the home office as well. ♪ today is not just about who rides in air force one, it's about who rides in the 4 door sedan, the 2 door hatchback and the v8 muscle car.

♪ because today it's about all of us. and no matter who you are, or where you live, you're the commander-in-chief of your own life. and that's something that will never change. ♪ let's get you up to indictment market, up 163 points on the dow jones industrial average and the s & p a 500 is kenny watching this level. kind of a laggard on the trading session today, the nasdaq, the

dow up 1.25%. what do you think? we keep adding on a little bit. >> we do i think it feels like it's getting a little bit tired here. you might get a push into the end the last hour, might get a push people starting to talk what they are starting to sense out of the exit polls and you might get that last push. europe is off the radar screen now. >> is that appropriate? >> i don't think it's appropriate at all, back to the forefront, once we get through tonight, right back to the old problems, friess the vote today or tomorrow? >> tomorrow. >> the vote otherize would they are going off the edge. >> their fiscal cliff, right, ty? >> a very interesting week, no matter what happens. reality resumes tomorrow as we really start to focus back on europe, back on the fiscal cliff and what the president, whoever he may be, will do.